Research by Lorenzo Berretti

Ferrari

Hold thesis on Ferrari, where a re-levered, luxury-weighted DCF puts fair value at ~€331 against a price of ~€329 — essentially fair after the ~37% de-rating from the 2025 highs. The case rests on Ferrari's scarcity model, pricing power and price/mix-driven margin expansion, plus a post-CMD estimates reset, with the Hermès re-rating as upside; but at the current price the valuation is highly sensitive to the discount rate, and the risk/reward supports holding rather than buying. Key risks are emissions regulation, FX, Luce execution, and loss of the scarcity premium.