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Keurig Dr Pepper

Long thesis on Keurig Dr Pepper as the market appears to have overreacted to the JDE Peet’s deal, leaving shares well below a modelled fair value of about $42 versus roughly $28. The case rests on manageable post-deal leverage, beverage growth, margin improvement, and execution of synergies, with key risks from coffee costs, regulation, and weak coffee volumes.

Hugo Raffard

President & Founder

20 Mar 2026

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