Research
Research by Hugo Raffard
Articles written by or contributed to by Hugo Raffard.
Equities
McCormick
McCormick and Company is rated Overweight with a fair value of $67 and a target purchase price of $47 because the analysis predicts that temporary headwinds from tariffs and inflation will be resolved by organic growth and Mexico business synergies by the year 2027.
Hugo Raffard26 Oct 2026With Gabriel Zubiria PDF ModelEquities
Burberry
Burberry Group is rated Long with a fair value of £12.76 and a target purchase price of £10.35 because the analysis predicts that the margin collapse from the FY25 strategic reset will be resolved by structural operating leverage and a broad-based recovery led by Greater China by FY31. The thesis rests on the view that Burberry's cost base has already been reset while its store estate remains largely intact, so incremental margin on recovering revenue is structurally higher than the market is currently pricing in.
Paolo Buquicchio27 Sept 2026With Hugo Raffard, Aryan Nejabati and Minea Mannerkivi PDF ModelEquities
Dominos Pizza Group Plc
Bullish on Domino’s Pizza Group because the market appears to have overreacted to two headline fears: the GLP-1 weight-loss craze hitting fast-food demand and Andrew Renney’s late-2025 CEO exit, both of which helped drive a sharp selloff. The thesis is that GLP-1 risk is likely smaller for Domino’s core customer base than investors assume, and with management stability, the shares could rerate from about 186p toward a modelled fair value of 284p.
Hugo Raffard20 Mar 2026 PDF ModelEquities
Keurig Dr Pepper
Long thesis on Keurig Dr Pepper as the market appears to have overreacted to the JDE Peet’s deal, leaving shares well below a modelled fair value of about $42 versus roughly $28. The case rests on manageable post-deal leverage, beverage growth, margin improvement, and execution of synergies, with key risks from coffee costs, regulation, and weak coffee volumes.
Hugo Raffard20 Mar 2026 PDF Model